The Magic Formula: What is the Poisson Distribution?

Imagine you are watching the Cookie Monster eat cookies. You know he usually eats an average of 3 cookies every hour. Does that mean he will eat exactly 3 cookies in the next hour? Not necessarily. He might eat zero if he falls asleep, or he might get extra hungry and eat 6.The Poisson Distribution is just a special mathematical tool that helps us guess how likely those other numbers (0, 1, 6) are, based on his average of 3.How it works for FootballIn football, goals are rare events that happen randomly. If Arsenal for example scores an average of 1.7 goals per home match, the Poisson formula can calculate the exact percentage chance of them scoring exactly 0, 1, 2, or 3 goals today. Removing Emotions: It doesn't care about a team's "name" or history, it only cares about the hard data of their attack and defense strength.Predicting the Score: By calculating these odds for both teams, we can build a "score matrix" to find the most likely final score, such as a 2-1 or a 1-1 draw.Finding Value: We compare our "math based" odds with the bookmakers' odds. If our engine says a team has a 60% chance to win, but the bookie only gives them a 40% chance, that is a Value Bet where we have an advantage. This is the secret behind the Impila Engine. We don't guess based on who we want to win; we let the numbers tell us who is likely to win.